Life Expectancy among Native Americans during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Estimates, Uncertainty and Obstacles.

Few reliable estimates have been available for assessing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality among Native Americans. Using deidentified publicly available data on deaths and population by age, we estimated life expectancy for the years 2019 to 2022 for single-race non-Hispanic Native Americans. Life expectancy in 2022 was 67.8 years, 2.3 years higher than in 2021 but a huge four-year loss from 2019. Although our life expectancy estimates for 2022 vary under different assumptions about racial/ethnic classification and age misreporting errors, all estimates are lower than the average for middle-income countries. Estimates of losses and gains in life expectancy are consistent across assumptions. Large reductions in COVID-19 death rates between 2021 and 2022 were largely offset by increases in death rates from unintentional injuries (particularly drug overdoses), chronic liver disease, diabetes, and heart disease, underscoring the difficulties facing Native Americans in achieving reductions in mortality let alone returning to levels of mortality prior to the pandemic. Serious data problems have persisted for many years, but the scarcity and inadequacy of estimates during the pandemic have underscored the urgent need for timely and accurate demographic data for the Native American population.

The impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy among four Asian American subgroups.

Background and objective: To date, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on life expectancy for the Asian American (AA) population has been reported in aggregate. This study provides estimates of life expectancy at birth before and during the pandemic, with a set of demographic, health, and socioeconomic risk factors for the four largest subgroups: Asian Indians, Chinese, Filipinos, and Vietnamese. These estimates are placed in context of the broader U.S. population. Methods: This study uses age-specific all-cause mortality from CDC WONDER and population counts from the American Community Surveys. We apply methodologies to address variability in population sizes over time (smoothing) and data quality issues at older ages (Brass relational model life table system) to produce three sets of sex-specific life expectancy estimates by subgroup for 2019, 2020, and 2021. Results: Almost all estimates show that the four AA subgroups experienced greater losses between 2019 and 2020 than Whites. These losses ranged from 1.1 to 3.9 years, with the largest drops among Chinese women (2.0-2.4) and Filipino men (3.5-3.9). Under all scenarios, losses in life expectancy were considerably smaller in 2021 than in 2020 among the four subgroups - with several subgroups experiencing a modest rebound - but these improvements did not compensate for the large increases in death rates in 2020. Filipino men had the largest decline in life expectancy from 2019 to 2021 among the four subgroups (3.4-4.2 years), and Vietnamese men and women experienced large losses which continued into the second year of the pandemic. Conclusions: Despite high pre-pandemic life expectancies, AAs suffered a large, and rarely acknowledged, increase in mortality during the pandemic, with substantial heterogeneity across subgroups and between women and men. This variability is due in part to the pronounced differences in risk factors for infection and severity which have been documented within the AA population.

Physical Work Exposures of Older Workers: Does Measurement Make a Difference?

Physically demanding work at later ages, which is especially prevalent among disadvantaged groups, is associated with long-term health outcomes and may contribute to health inequality over the life course. Past studies of these issues have relied on occupational characteristics from the Occupational Information Network (O*NET), but few have assessed how O*NET compares to survey reports when measuring occupational exposures in analyses of socioeconomic status, work conditions, and health. We compare Health and Retirement Study (HRS, N = 16,683 working respondents) and O*NET measurements of general physical activity, frequency of lifting/handling objects, and frequency of stooping-related postures required at work. Pearson correlations between the HRS items and corresponding O*NET items vary from weak to moderate for lifting/handling and stooping-related postures to relatively large for general physical activity. Though they are measured on different scales, both the HRS and O*NET measures of physical demands reveal similar sex, racial/ethnic, and educational differentials in exposure to physically strenuous work. We fit random effects Poisson models to assess how these measures predict accumulation of functional limitations, a potential long-term consequence of strenuous working conditions. Comparable HRS and O*NET measures have similar associations with functional limitations. We also consider an average of physical demand items available in O*NET, finding that this measure has similar associations with functional limitations as the O*NET measure of general physical activity. These results suggest that O*NET characteristics and HRS respondent reports produce comparable disparities in physical work exposures (PWEs) and associations between physically demanding work and declines in physical functioning.

Research Note: COVID-19 Is Not an Independent Cause of Death.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had overwhelming global impacts with deleterious social, economic, and health consequences. To assess the COVID-19 death toll, researchers have estimated declines in 2020 life expectancy at birth (e0). When data are available only for COVID-19 deaths, but not for deaths from other causes, the risks of dying from COVID-19 are typically assumed to be independent of those from other causes. In this research note, we explore the soundness of this assumption using data from the United States and Brazil, the countries with the largest number of reported COVID-19 deaths. We use three methods: one estimates the difference between 2019 and 2020 life tables and therefore does not require the assumption of independence, and the other two assume independence to simulate scenarios in which COVID-19 mortality is added to 2019 death rates or is eliminated from 2020 rates. Our results reveal that COVID-19 is not independent of other causes of death. The assumption of independence can lead to either an overestimate (Brazil) or an underestimate (United States) of the decline in e0, depending on how the number of other reported causes of death changed in 2020.

Deportations and departures: Undocumented Mexican immigrants' return migration during three presidential administrations.

This study examines changes in the sociodemographic patterns of deportation and voluntary return of undocumented immigrants from the United States to Mexico during three US presidential administrations (2001 to 2019) with different immigration policies. Most previous studies examining these migration flows for the United States as a whole have relied exclusively on counts of deportees and returnees, thereby ignoring changes over the past 20 y in the characteristics of the undocumented population itself, i.e., the population at risk of deportation or voluntary return. We estimate Poisson models based on two data sources that permit us to compare changes in the sex, age, education, and marital status distributions of both deportees and voluntary return migrants with the corresponding changes in the undocumented population during the Bush, Obama, and Trump administrations: the Migration Survey on the Borders of Mexico-North (Encuesta sobre Migración en las Fronteras de México-Norte) for counts of deportees and voluntary return migrants and the Current Population Survey's Annual Social and Economic Supplement for estimated counts of the undocumented population living in the United States. We find that whereas disparities by sociodemographic characteristics in the likelihood of deportation generally increased beginning in Obama's first term, sociodemographic disparities in the likelihood of voluntary return generally decreased over this period. Despite heightened antiimmigrant rhetoric during the Trump administration, the changes in deportation and voluntary return migration to Mexico among the undocumented during Trump's term were part of a trend that began early in the Obama administration.

Life expectancy loss among Native Americans during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: There has been little systematic research on the mortality impact of COVID-19 in the Native American population. OBJECTIVE: We provide estimates of loss of life expectancy in 2020 and 2021 relative to 2019 for the Native American population. METHODS: We use data on age-specific all-cause mortality rates from CDC WONDER and the 2019 life table recently released by the National Vital Statistics System for Native Americans to calculate life tables for the Native American population in 2020 and 2021 and to obtain estimates of life expectancy reductions during the COVID-19 pandemic. RESULTS: The pandemic has set Native Americans further behind other major racial/ethnic groups in terms of life expectancy. The estimated loss in life expectancy at birth for Native Americans is 4.5 years in 2020 and 6.4 years in 2021 relative to 2019. CONCLUSIONS: These results underscore the disproportionate share of deaths experienced by Native Americans: a loss in life expectancy at birth in 2020 that is more than three years above that for Whites and about 1.5 years above the losses for the Black and Latino populations. Despite a successful vaccination campaign among Native Americans, the estimated loss in life expectancy at birth in 2021 unexpectedly exceeds that in 2020. CONTRIBUTION: The increased loss in life expectancy in 2021, despite higher vaccination rates than in other racial/ethnic groups, highlights the huge challenges faced by Native Americans in their efforts to control the deleterious consequences of the pandemic.

Reductions in US life expectancy during the COVID-19 pandemic by race and ethnicity: Is 2021 a repetition of 2020?

COVID-19 had a huge mortality impact in the US in 2020 and accounted for most of the overall reduction in 2020 life expectancy at birth. There were also extensive racial/ethnic disparities in the mortality impact of COVID-19 in 2020, with the Black and Latino populations experiencing reductions in life expectancy at birth over twice as large as that of the White population. Despite continued vulnerability of these populations, the hope was that widespread distribution of effective vaccines would mitigate the overall mortality impact and reduce racial/ethnic disparities in 2021. In this study, we quantify the mortality impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on 2021 US period life expectancy by race and ethnicity and compare these impacts to those estimated for 2020. Our estimates indicate that racial/ethnic disparities have persisted, and that the US population experienced a decline in life expectancy at birth in 2021 of 2.2 years from 2019, 0.6 years more than estimated for 2020. The corresponding reductions estimated for the Black and Latino populations are slightly below twice that for Whites, suggesting smaller disparities than those in 2020. However, all groups experienced additional reductions in life expectancy at birth relative to 2020, and this apparent narrowing of disparities is primarily the result of Whites experiencing proportionately greater increases in mortality in 2021 compared with the corresponding increases in mortality for the Black and Latino populations in 2021. Estimated declines in life expectancy at age 65 increased slightly for Whites between 2020 and 2021 but decreased for both the Black and Latino populations, resulting in the same overall reduction (0.8 years) estimated for 2020 and 2021.

COVID-19 is not an Independent Cause of Death.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had overwhelming global impacts with deleterious social, economic, and health consequences. To assess the COVID-19 death toll researchers have estimated declines in 2020 life expectancy at birth. Because data are often available only for COVID-19 deaths, the risks of dying from COVID-19 are assumed to be independent of those from other causes. We explore the soundness of this assumption based on data from the US and Brazil, the countries with the largest number of reported COVID-19 deaths. We use three methods. One estimates the difference between 2019 and 2020 life tables and therefore does not require the assumption of independence. The other two assume independence to simulate scenarios in which COVID-19 mortality is added to 2019 death rates or is eliminated from 2020 rates. Our results reveal that COVID-19 is not independent of other causes of death. The assumption of independence can lead to either an overestimate (Brazil) or an underestimate (US) of the decline in e 0 , depending on how the number of other reported causes of death changed in 2020.

Multilevel Factors for Adiposity Change in a Population-Based Prospective Study of Black Breast Cancer Survivors.

PURPOSE: Unfavorable weight change after breast cancer diagnosis increases the risk of mortality, but individual and neighborhood risk factors affecting postdiagnosis weight and body fat changes are unclear among Black women, who have higher rates of obesity and mortality than any other racial/ethnic group. METHODS: Adiposity changes during the period approximately 10 months-24 months after diagnosis were evaluated among 785 women diagnosed between 2012 and 2018 and enrolled in the Women's Circle of Health Follow-Up Study, a population-based prospective cohort of Black breast cancer survivors in New Jersey. Multilevel factors for weight and fat mass change (with gain or loss defined as a relative difference of 3% or more, and considering whether changes were intentional or unintentional) were estimated using multivariable polytomous logistic regressions and multilevel models. RESULTS: Adiposity gain was prevalent: 28% and 47% gained weight and body fat, respectively, despite a high baseline prevalence of overweight or obesity (86%). Risk factors for fat mass gain included receiving chemotherapy (relative risk ratio: 1.59, 95% CI, 1.08 to 2.33) and residing in neighborhoods with a greater density of fast-food restaurants (relative risk ratio comparing highest with lowest tertile: 2.18, 95% CI, 1.38 to 3.46); findings were similar for weight gain. Only 9% of women had intentional weight loss, and multilevel risk factors differed vastly from unintentional loss. CONCLUSION: Both individual and neighborhood factors were associated with adiposity change among Black breast cancer survivors. Residential environment characteristics may offer clinically meaningful information to identify cancer survivors at higher risk for unfavorable weight change and to address barriers to postdiagnosis weight management.

Life Expectancy Loss among Native Americans During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

BACKGROUND: There has been little systematic research on the mortality impact of COVID-19 in the Native American population. OBJECTIVE: We provide estimates of loss of life expectancy in 2020 and 2021 for the Native American population. METHODS: We use data on age-specific all-cause mortality rates from CDC WONDER and the 2019 life table recently released by the National Vital Statistics System for Native Americans to calculate life tables for the Native American population in 2020 and 2021 and obtain estimates of life expectancy reductions during the COVID-19 pandemic. RESULTS: The pandemic has set Native Americans further behind other major racial/ethnic groups in terms of life expectancy: the estimated loss in life expectancy at birth for Native Americans is 4.5 years in 2020 and 6.4 years in 2021. CONCLUSIONS: These results underscore the disproportionate share of deaths experienced by Native Americans: a loss in life expectancy at birth in 2020 that is more than three years larger than that for Whites and about 1.5 years greater than the losses for the Black and Latino populations. Despite a successful vaccination campaign among Native Americans, the estimated loss in life expectancy at birth in 2021 unexpectedly exceeds that in 2020. Contribution: The increased loss in life expectancy in 2021, despite higher vaccination rates than in other racial/ethnic groups, highlights the huge challenges faced by Native Americans in their efforts to control the deleterious consequences of the pandemic.

Reductions in US life expectancy during the COVID-19 pandemic by race and ethnicity: Is 2021 a repetition of 2020?

COVID-19 had a huge mortality impact in the US in 2020 and accounted for most of the overall reduction in 2020 life expectancy at birth. There were also extensive racial/ethnic disparities in the mortality impact of COVID-19 in 2020, with the Black and Latino populations experiencing reductions in life expectancy at birth over twice as large as that of the White population. Despite continued vulnerability of these populations, the hope was that widespread distribution of effective vaccines would mitigate the overall impact and reduce racial/ethnic disparities in 2021. In this study, we quantify the mortality impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on 2021 US period life expectancy by race and ethnicity and compare these impacts to those estimated for 2020. Our estimates indicate that racial/ethnic disparities have persisted, and that the US population experienced a decline in life expectancy at birth in 2021 of 2.2 years from 2019, 0.6 years more than estimated for 2020. The corresponding reductions estimated for the Black and Latino populations are slightly below twice that for Whites, suggesting smaller disparities than those in 2020. However, all groups experienced additional reductions in life expectancy relative to 2020, and this apparent narrowing of disparities is primarily the result of Whites experiencing proportionately greater increases in mortality in 2021 compared with the corresponding increases in mortality for the Black and Latino populations in 2021. Estimated declines in life expectancy at age 65 increased slightly for Whites between 2020 and 2021 but decreased for both the Black and Latino populations, resulting in the same overall reduction (0.8 years) estimated for 2020 and 2021.

Evidence that ageing yields improvements as well as declines across attention and executive functions.

Many but not all cognitive abilities decline during ageing. Some even improve due to lifelong experience. The critical capacities of attention and executive functions have been widely posited to decline. However, these capacities are composed of multiple components, so multifaceted ageing outcomes might be expected. Indeed, prior findings suggest that whereas certain attention/executive functions clearly decline, others do not, with hints that some might even improve. We tested ageing effects on the alerting, orienting and executive (inhibitory) networks posited by Posner and Petersen's influential theory of attention, in a cross-sectional study of a large sample (N = 702) of participants aged 58-98. Linear and nonlinear analyses revealed that whereas the efficiency of the alerting network decreased with age, orienting and executive inhibitory efficiency increased, at least until the mid-to-late 70s. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the patterns were robust. The results suggest variability in age-related changes across attention/executive functions, with some declining while others improve.

Physical work conditions and disparities in later life functioning: Potential pathways.

Research in the US on the social determinants of reduced physical functioning at older ages has typically not considered physical work conditions as contributors to disparities. We briefly describe a model of occupational stratification and segregation, review and synthesize the occupational health literature, and outline the physiological pathways through which physical work exposures may be tied to long-term declines in physical functioning. The literature suggests that posture, force, vibration, and repetition are the primary occupational risk factors implicated in the development of musculoskeletal disorders, through either acute injuries or longer-term wear and tear. Personal risk factors and environmental and structural work characteristics can modify this association. In the long-term, these musculoskeletal disorders can become chronic and ultimately lead to functional limitations and disabilities that interfere with one's quality of life and ability to remain independent. We then use data on occupational characteristics from the Occupational Information Network (O*NET) linked to the 2019 American Community Survey (ACS) to examine disparities among sociodemographic groups in exposure to these risk factors. Occupations with high levels of these physical demands are not limited to those traditionally thought of as manual or blue-collar jobs and include many positions in the service sector. We document a steep education gradient with less educated workers experiencing far greater physical demands at work than more educated workers. There are pronounced racial and ethnic differences in these exposures with Hispanic, Black, and Native American workers experiencing higher risks than White and Asian workers. Occupations with high exposures to these physical risk factors provide lower compensation and are less likely to provide employer-sponsored health insurance, making it more difficult for workers to address injuries or conditions that arise from their jobs. In sum, we argue that physical work exposures are likely an important pathway through which disparities in physical functioning arise.

Racial and ethnic differentials in COVID-19-related job exposures by occupational standing in the US.

Researchers and journalists have argued that work-related factors may be partly responsible for disproportionate COVID-19 infection and death rates among vulnerable groups. We evaluate these issues by describing racial and ethnic differences in the likelihood of work-related exposure to COVID-19. We extend previous studies by considering 12 racial and ethnic groups and five types of potential occupational exposure to the virus: exposure to infection, physical proximity to others, face-to-face discussions, interactions with external customers and the public, and working indoors. Most importantly, we stratify our results by occupational standing, defined as the proportion of workers within each occupation with at least some college education. This measure serves as a proxy for whether workplaces and workers employ COVID-19-related risk reduction strategies. We use the 2018 American Community Survey to identify recent workers by occupation, and link 409 occupations to information on work context from the Occupational Information Network to identify potential COVID-related risk factors. We then examine the racial/ethnic distribution of all frontline workers and frontline workers at highest potential risk of COVID-19, by occupational standing and by sex. The results indicate that, contrary to expectation, White frontline workers are often overrepresented in high-risk jobs while Black and Latino frontline workers are generally underrepresented in these jobs. However, disaggregation of the results by occupational standing shows that, in contrast to Whites and several Asian groups, Latino and Black frontline workers are overrepresented in lower standing occupations overall and in lower standing occupations associated with high risk, and thus may be less likely to have adequate COVID-19 protections. Our findings suggest that greater work exposures likely contribute to a higher prevalence of COVID-19 among Latino and Black adults and underscore the need for measures to reduce potential exposure for workers in low standing occupations and for the development of programs outside the workplace.

Reduction in life expectancy in Brazil after COVID-19.

Brazil has been heavily affected by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this study, we used data on reported total deaths in 2020 and in January-April 2021 to measure and compare the death toll across states. We estimate a decline in 2020 life expectancy at birth (e0) of 1.3 years, a mortality level not seen since 2014. The reduction in life expectancy at age 65 (e65) in 2020 was 0.9 years, setting Brazil back to 2012 levels. The decline was larger for males, widening by 9.1% the female-male gap in e0. Among states, Amazonas lost 60.4% of the improvements in e0 since 2000. In the first 4 months of 2021, COVID-19 deaths represented 107% of the total 2020 figures. Assuming that death rates would have been equal to 2019 all-cause rates in the absence of COVID-19, COVID-19 deaths in 2021 have already reduced e0 in 2021 by 1.8 years, which is slightly larger than the reduction estimated for 2020 under similar assumptions.

Trajectories of physical functioning among older adults in the US by race, ethnicity and nativity: Examining the role of working conditions.

Latinos in the US live significantly longer than non-Latino whites, but spend more years disabled. Differentials in socioeconomic status account for part, but not all, of the difference in older age disability between Latinos and whites. We hypothesize that a factor often ignored in the literature-the fact that Latinos, on average, have more physically strenuous jobs than non-Latino whites-contributes to the higher Latino risk of functional limitations at older ages. We use longitudinal data from the 1998-2014 Health and Retirement Study (HRS) comprising 17,297 respondents. Compared to US-born whites, Latinos, especially Latino immigrants, report substantially higher levels of physical effort at work. Latino-black differences are much smaller than Latino-white differences. As hypothesized, physical work effort is strongly related to functional limitations. However, differentials in physical work effort for Latinos and whites in their fifties and early sixties are weakly related to Latino-white differentials in FL at later ages.

Reductions in 2020 US life expectancy due to COVID-19 and the disproportionate impact on the Black and Latino populations.

COVID-19 has resulted in a staggering death toll in the United States: over 215,000 by mid-October 2020, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Black and Latino Americans have experienced a disproportionate burden of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, reflecting persistent structural inequalities that increase risk of exposure to COVID-19 and mortality risk for those infected. We estimate life expectancy at birth and at age 65 y for 2020, for the total US population and by race and ethnicity, using four scenarios of deaths-one in which the COVID-19 pandemic had not occurred and three including COVID-19 mortality projections produced by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Our medium estimate indicates a reduction in US life expectancy at birth of 1.13 y to 77.48 y, lower than any year since 2003. We also project a 0.87-y reduction in life expectancy at age 65 y. The Black and Latino populations are estimated to experience declines in life expectancy at birth of 2.10 and 3.05 y, respectively, both of which are several times the 0.68-y reduction for Whites. These projections imply an increase of nearly 40% in the Black-White life expectancy gap, from 3.6 y to over 5 y, thereby eliminating progress made in reducing this differential since 2006. Latinos, who have consistently experienced lower mortality than Whites (a phenomenon known as the Latino or Hispanic paradox), would see their more than 3-y survival advantage reduced to less than 1 y.

Early-life education may help bolster declarative memory in old age, especially for women.

Although declarative memory declines with age, sex and education might moderate these weaknesses. We investigated effects of sex and education on nonverbal declarative (recognition) memory in 704 older adults (aged 58-98, 0-17 years of education). Items were drawings of real and made-up objects. Age negatively impacted declarative memory, though this age effect was moderated by sex and object-type: it was steeper for males than females, but only for real objects. Education was positively associated with memory, but also interacted with sex and object-type: education benefited women more than men (countering the age effects, especially for women), and remembering real more than made-up objects. The findings suggest that nonverbal memory in older adults is associated negatively with age but positively with education; both effects are modulated by sex, and by whether learning relates to preexisting or new information. The study suggests downstream benefits from education, especially for girls.